How the “Big Beautiful Bill” Could Impact Real Estate, Mortgages, and the Economy

Agent Myha Bui
Jul 10
3 min read

As the Trump administration drafts its sweeping “Big Beautiful Bill,” serious policy shifts in taxes, infrastructure, and regulation could ripple through the housing market, impacting everything from interest rates to home prices and economic stability. Below is a deeper dive—enriched with data and visual insights—to help you understand what’s at stake.

1. Mortgage Rate Trends: A Data‑Driven Perspective

The most immediate concern centers on mortgage rates:

Historic low to record highs: Rates plunged below 3% in 2020–2021, then soared above 7% by late 2022 (barrons.com, investopedia.com, themortgagereports.com).
Current trends: As of July 3, 2025, the average 30‑year fixed mortgage stands at about 6.67%—the lowest since April—but still far above recent historic lows (foxbusiness.com).
Looking ahead: The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts a slight decline to ~5.9% by late 2025; however, that forecast hinges on broader economic shifts.

Implication for borrowers: Even modest inflation triggered by aggressive fiscal expansion could prompt the Federal Reserve to hold or raise interest rates again, keeping mortgage rates stubbornly high.

2. Housing Market Prices: Case‑Shiller Insights

April 2025 snapshot:
- Seasonally adjusted national index at 327.9, reflecting a 2.7% year-over-year increase (apnews.com, fred.stlouisfed.org).
- Non-seasonally adjusted index at 329.6 (fred.stlouisfed.org).
Recent trends:
- After seasonal dips in early 2025, April marked the third consecutive month of narrowing annual gains—the lowest since August 2023 (advisorperspectives.com).
- Some metro areas are slowing faster than others, adding regional nuance (barrons.com).

Takeaway: Home prices are still rising—albeit more moderately—keeping affordability pressures alive even as some markets cool.

3. Investment & Tax Policy: What’s at Play

One of the most consequential unknowns in the bill is how it will reshape real estate tax incentives:

1031 exchanges, depreciation, and capital gains rules could be revamped—either enhancing or hampering investment returns.
Infrastructure funding, if targeted toward housing, could boost supply, while broad tax cuts might inflate demand or weaken deficit discipline.

🔍 Investor takeaway: These subtleties could swing investment strategy, so staying alert during legislative negotiations is essential.

4. Economic Growth vs. Market Uncertainty

Pro-growth potential: Infrastructure spending and deregulation might accelerate employment, consumer spending, and demand for housing in expanding metro areas.
Risk of volatility: Until the bill passes, uncertainty could dampen confidence—slowing down purchase decisions and lending underwriters.

Cautionary note: Even short-term legislative ambiguity can temporarily freeze parts of the market.

5. Housing Affordability: A Strained Balance

Combining rising prices with high mortgage rates exacerbates affordability issues:

First-time buyers may struggle the most unless explicit relief—such as tax credits—is included.
Seasoned homeowners might hold off selling if they’re locked into favorable loan terms, further reducing market inventory (investopedia.com).

Advisory: Buyers should explore options like rate locks or adjustable-rate mortgages; sellers should consider staging sales before market shift.

What You Can Do Now

Strategy	Action
Track rates daily	Follow Freddie Mac, Mortgage News Daily, MBA
Stay informed on legislation	Watch congressional updates and budget drafts
Lock in financing early	Discuss options with lenders—ARMs, rate locks
Reevaluate investments	Get tax-advice if new reforms emerge
Work with a trusted advisor	We can guide you as policies evolve

The “Big Beautiful Bill” isn’t final yet—but its ripple effects are already in motion. With fluctuating rates and policy-driven uncertainty, strategic positioning is more important than ever. ever. Whether you're an investor, homeowner, or prospective buyer, now is the time to evaluate your position, stay informed, and work with a trusted real estate advisor. Myha is tracking every development and helping clients make confident, well-informed decisions regardless of political or economic shifts.

Stay tuned for updates as more details on the “Big Beautiful Bill” emerge. If you'd like to discuss your real estate goals or how to prepare for upcoming changes, contact me today.